Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA standings projections have been released and the Pirates aren't expected to experience improvement in terms of their overall record.
Following back-to-back 76-86 seasons, they are projected to finish fourth in the National League Central with around 75 wins and 87 losses. They are given a 5.8% chance of making the playoffs with a 3.5% chance of being a wild-card team and a 2.3% chance of winning the division.
This doesn't come as much of a surprise considering the Pirates' lack of free-agency spending and the minor moves made this winter. Some additions were necessary, including the signing of a seemingly valuable left-handed reliever in CalebFerguson and the trade acquisition of SpencerHorwitz to contribute at first base. But others don't seem to really move the needle in terms of helping the team truly take the next step.
Meanwhile, other teams in the division have made efforts to improve heading into 2025. That includes the Reds, who are viewed as the last-place team in the division, according to this model, with anywhere between 73 and 74 wins along with between 88 and 89 losses. The Cardinals are projected as the third-place team with around 79 wins and 83 losses, while the Brewers are expected to finish second with around 80 wins and 82 losses.
The Cubs aren't just viewed as the favorite in the division. They're projected to have one of the highest win totals in all of Major League Baseball. Their projected record of 91-71 is the third-best among MLB teams, trailing the Braves and Dodgers.
BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
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THE ASYLUM
José Negron
11:10 am - 02.03.2025DowntownPECOTA sees fourth place
Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA standings projections have been released and the Pirates aren't expected to experience improvement in terms of their overall record.
Following back-to-back 76-86 seasons, they are projected to finish fourth in the National League Central with around 75 wins and 87 losses. They are given a 5.8% chance of making the playoffs with a 3.5% chance of being a wild-card team and a 2.3% chance of winning the division.
This doesn't come as much of a surprise considering the Pirates' lack of free-agency spending and the minor moves made this winter. Some additions were necessary, including the signing of a seemingly valuable left-handed reliever in Caleb Ferguson and the trade acquisition of Spencer Horwitz to contribute at first base. But others don't seem to really move the needle in terms of helping the team truly take the next step.
Meanwhile, other teams in the division have made efforts to improve heading into 2025. That includes the Reds, who are viewed as the last-place team in the division, according to this model, with anywhere between 73 and 74 wins along with between 88 and 89 losses. The Cardinals are projected as the third-place team with around 79 wins and 83 losses, while the Brewers are expected to finish second with around 80 wins and 82 losses.
The Cubs aren't just viewed as the favorite in the division. They're projected to have one of the highest win totals in all of Major League Baseball. Their projected record of 91-71 is the third-best among MLB teams, trailing the Braves and Dodgers.
BASEBALL PROSPECTUS
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